In this blog post, I’m going to a high elevation to review the landscape. It is a practice that I see used by native Americans hunting the pole circle wilderness for subsistence harvesting when they climb to a high point in their terrain to glass the surroundings for prey. So much we can learn from the culture and practices of people who got conditioned by the absence of modern conveniences like roads, tap water, power and sewage systems, cell towers and all of the utilities enabled by such infrastructure!
From our
high point we are able to see the forest for the trees.
There is so
much going on both domestically and internationally that it is hard to keep
seeing the big picture. It is so easy to get myopically focused on one or two storylines
and fail to see the complexity of so many things happening at the same time,
atmospherically, geographically, politically, scientifically, socially, and economically.
I’m taking
my spot on the high perch and what do I see?
First, my
eye catches the landscape of Ukraine, where, for the first time since the
Russian invasion of February 24, the Ukrainian army seems to be on the winning
hand and is slowly recapturing a good part of the ground it lost in the early phase
of the Russian intrusion. The Ukrainian will and power of resistance is inspiring
and effective beyond belief. No two situations are the same, but I can’t help
comparing the Ukrainian refusal to bend for Putin’s troops with the ineffective
defense of the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Denmark, and Norway against the
onslaught by Nazi Germany. Including the heroic decision by the Ukrainian
President Zelenskyy to stay put in Kyiv, lead the defense, and organize strong
international economic, humanitarian, and military support. Who, at the onset
of the Russian invasion, predicted that 7 months into the war, the Zelenskyy
government would still be in control of most of the Ukrainian territory,
including its capital, and in effect be on the counterattack against a mighty
Russian military force? It is too early to foresee where this conflict will go
from here, but what has been established beyond doubt is that Ukraine is a vibrant,
determined, courageous nation that will not (again) be subjugated by an
imperial Russian authoritarian regime.
My gaze
drifts for a moment to England, where an end has come to a more than 70-year
reign by Queen Elizabeth II. Nobody does pump and circumstance like the British!
After Brexit, the fall of the Boris Johnson government, the dispiriting
spectacle of the Tory battle for the Johnson succession, the poor state of the
U.K. economy, the weakness of the pound sterling, and the painfully high rate
of inflation, the Queen was a rare symbol of British stability. The mourning
and the long display of tributes and ceremonies has given England some respite
from the national malaise, but it will only be temporary and soon enough
reality will sink in. One has to pity the new king who will not have the time,
the character, and the popular support to make us forget the second Elizabethan
reign. It may be up to the English national soccer team at the World Cup in
November to salvage some of the global prestige of Britannia.
Speaking of
November brings me to the mid-term elections to be held in the USA on November
8. That will be the time that American citizens are given the chance to speak
up on how and by whom they want to be governed. The ballot will be open on all
of the seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of the seats in the
Senate, and numerous State and local initiatives and elective offices.
While
history and conventional wisdom point to a resounding defeat of the party of
the incumbent President in his first term in office, there is tension in the
air and a strong suggestion that this is going to be anything but a normal
routine mid-term election. For three reasons. First, because of the commotion
and indignation caused by the recent Supreme Court ruling in the Dobbs case,
that reversed the 50-year-old Roe vs Wade ruling that gave US women a
constitutional right to have an abortion. Second, because of the tumult in the
Republican Party between the Trump fraction and the conventional Republicans. In
many of the primaries leading up to the mid-term election Trump loyalists have
come out on top but may have great difficulty attracting the vote of
conventional Republicans and Independents in the general election. And third,
because of actions and declarations of populist Republican office holders,
governors and congressmen, on the subject of abortion and immigration that are
far outside of the bounds of popular opinion. Each of these expressions of the
culture wars raging in the USA are stirring the ire of the public and are
likely to drive an extraordinary number of voters to the voting booths on
November 8.
Unbiased
observers will also point to the quiet but exceptional progress the Biden
administration has made in the first two years of its term in office. Without
having to resort to ‘nuclear options’ like abolishing the filibuster rule, packing
the Supreme Court, or granting Statehood to Washington D.C., Puerto Rico, or the
U.S. Territories. Given the wafer-thin margin of control of the House and the
Senate, it is remarkable what the Biden Administration has been able to do with
respect to infrastructure renovation, gun control legislation, chips
manufacturing repatriation, veterans’ healthcare improvement, college debt
reduction, and climate control measures. With the economy and the supply chain flow
threatened by a rail labor dispute, it has decisively stepped in to avoid a
strike. In foreign affairs it has rebuilt trust and cooperation within the
Western Alliance, strengthened NATO and lead the free world to assist the
Ukrainians in their struggle against the Russian invaders.
From my high
perch I can see all the way to China where, starting on October 16, the National
Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will decide if it will keep supporting
the personal cult of President Xi Jinping and give him an unprecedented third
term in office. Although he has carefully and ruthlessly stacked the deck in
favor of his ambitions, a tradition of collective rule and cultural aversion to
a personality cult rivaling the one of Mao Zedong may put his leadership to a
test at a time that it is weakened by the unpopular and ineffective control of
the Covid epidemic that started in China, by a weakened economy and by
resentment against the technology enhanced surveillance state he has put in
place.
My panoramic
view reveals a global struggle between progress and regress, between democracy
and authoritarianism, and ultimately between peace and war. What has yet to
come in focus is how these struggles will be decided, but it is clear that the
next two years will, if not decisive, be indicative of the kind of future that
awaits us. In America it will be shaped by popular vote in November of this
year and in November of 2024. Not all nations are that lucky and it remains to
be seen if our luck holds. By rights, sovereignty resides with the people of
nations, not with whomever happens to temporarily have assumed secular administrative
control.
