There are dates that are indelibly etched into our collective memory: December 7, the day that lives in infamy, June 6 D-Day, November 22 JFK assassination, September 11, January 6, and most recently October 7. They are all dates that profoundly changed the trajectory of history. Most, but not all of these dates come unpredictably, like black swans. Some, like D-Day, are carefully planned. The next such date is November 5, 2024, when Americans will go to the polls to elect their 47th President, a new House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and numerous State governorships.
What for the
longest time threatened to be a contest between two elderly white men, one
greatly diminished in his campaign readiness by the ravages of time, the
demands of the job, and a lifetime of personal tragedies and one who, by
personal disposition and track record, should be disqualified from ever holding
the highest office in the land, has suddenly morphed into a very different scenario
when Joe Biden dropped out of the race. For 24 days after his stunningly sub
par performance in the first presidential debate with Donald Trump, Joe Biden held
out, defiantly, even though he kept stumbling in every public appearance orchestrated
to show his command. It had the distinct feeling that the next Presidential
election would not be a political contest, but a clash between two cults. For
all those 24 days, it looked like Joe Biden had chosen a page out of the Trump
book of self-aggrandizement: “Only I can save you.” That was very much the
tenor of his interview with George Stephanopoulos on July 5 when he said: “Look,
I’m running again because I think I understand best what has to be done to take
this nation to a completely new level.” For all those agonizing 24 days, where
everything went against him, he seemed to put his personal ambition above the interest
of the country and make it a contest between the Trump cult and the Biden cult.
Thankfully, with his withdrawal from the race yesterday, that debacle has been
avoided.
When Biden
beat Trump in the 2020 election, he presented himself as a ‘transitional’ President.
The impression he gave was that he would serve for one term, lead the nation
out of the quagmire created by four years of Trump disfunction, and hand over
the torch to a representative of a new generation. We can only guess at what
kept him from executing that plan, but he apparently changed his mind and,
until yesterday, was adamant that he would run for a second term and beat Trump
one more time. Was it because he surprised the nation and himself by being one
of the most consequential Presidents of our lifetime despite having to work
with a hostile Senate for the first two years of his tenure and a very hostile
House of Representatives for the second two years? Was it because he truly
believed that there was nobody inside the Democratic Party that could do the
job as well as he could? Or was it that he feared, probably justifiably so,
that being clear about being a one-term President would relegate him from day
one to the status of a lame duck who could not accomplish anything domestically
and on the world stage? We can only guess his motivation, but the bottom line
is that with only 106 days left until November 5 the campaign now must be completely
realigned.
The outcome
of the Democratic primaries that put Joe Biden on track for the nomination must
be disregarded and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago August 19-22 must
anoint someone else than the incumbent President. At the close of that
Convention, only 77 days remain for the final campaign towards the most
consequential election of our lifetime.
The good news
is that we can now look forward to a contest not between two overaged self-indulgent
personalities but between a champion of authoritarianism and a yet to be named champion
of improved democracy. At this time, it very much looks like a contest between
a prosecutor and a convicted felon (which should never be a real contest). But the
selection of the Democratic candidate has yet to play itself out in accordance
with the rules established by the Democratic National Committee and remains
open until the Democratic National Convention, still almost a month away.
In the
process of nominating the Democratic candidates for President and Vice
President the delegates to the DNC will have to keep in mind the Democratic
chances in the Congressional races in November. Holding on to the White House
but losing the Senate and staying in the minority in the House of
Representatives would not be enough to defeat the authoritarian streak in the
Republican Party of today. The Democratic Party has several highly qualified members
for high office, but some of them, like Mark Kelly, Jamie Raskin, and Sherrod
Brown are running for re-election in Congress where they will be needed to
protect the Democratic representation. Andy Beshear, the Democratic governor of
the very red State of Kentucky would be surrendering the Lexington Capitol to
his Republican Lieutenant Governor if he were to step up to national office.
Another
question to be decided is if Joe Biden should complete his term in office or resign
and hand over the reins to Kamala Harris before his term expires. Ultimately,
that should be decided by the President’s capacity to competently execute his presidential
duties. At this point it is not abundantly clear what his fitness for office
is. That is a medical not a political determination. For national security
reasons the determination has to be made quickly and behind closed doors. Of
course, a Biden resignation followed by the swearing in of Kamala Harris as the
47th President, would almost certainly settle her candidature for
the next Presidential term. But it would require the selection of a new
Vice-President by Kamala Harris and that selection would have to be approved by
both houses of Congress. Good luck with that in a Mike Johnson led House of
Representatives. Mike Johnson and his cohorts would be keenly aware that he
would be next in line for the Presidency if something were to happen to Kamala
Harris before a new VP could be confirmed. What a scary thought! That threat
would not go away until January 20, 2025.
It is
abundantly clear that November 5, 2024, is shaping up as another one of those fateful
days that, for better or for worse, will be etched forever in our collective
memory.
