At least it is no longer a contest between two elderly white men, one greatly diminished in his campaign readiness by the ravages of time, the demands of the job, and a lifetime of personal tragedies and one angry old man who, by personal disposition and track record, should have been disqualified from ever holding the highest office in the land.
Biden’s acceptance of the inevitable has immediately
altered the race for the White House. For a long time it looked like the
Democrats were inexorably heading into defeat and like lemmings following each
other over the cliff. There was a widespread belief that Vice President Kamala
Harris was not what the voters wanted (the jury is still out on that until
November 5), but her immediate ascendancy following Biden’s withdrawal seems to
belie that notion.
One of the most remarkable things that has happened after
Biden dropped out of the race is that as soon as he had taken himself out of
the picture, an impressive number of potential candidates for the Democratic
ticket came out of the shadows. It was smart for the Democrats to quickly close
ranks behind Kamala Harris and avoid a divisive contest going into the
Democratic Convention, but it became clear that if Biden had acted timely his
party could have come up with a stronger contender than the current Vice
President. Nevertheless, the die has been cast and the scenario has changed
dramatically.
The old worn shoe is now on the other foot. The
Republicans will have to make the best with what they have in hand: a tired
old, mumbling and stumbling, bitter and revengeful man who keeps spinning and
getting entangled in a web of lies. A man who is so clearly over the hill and
has overstayed his welcome. The British journalist Nate White brilliantly
characterizes this flawed human specimen: “No class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility,
no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no
self-awareness, no humility, no humor, and no grace.” Nate White also opens our
eyes to the fact that the man never laughs and never says anything faintly
witty or amusing: “His idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult,
a blatant lie, or a casual act of cruelty.”
If Kamala Harris ends up winning this election, the
Republicans have only themselves to blame. By slavishly throwing their support
behind a man who is so clearly unfit for the office he so badly wants to return
to they are, probably fatally, torpedoing their chance to regain the White
House and in the process are jeopardizing their shot at controlling both houses
of Congress. Can you imagine what a challenge Kamala Harris would have if she
had to square off against a Larry Hogan, a Glenn Youngkin, a Nikki Haley, or
even a Ron DeSantis?
With Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket, the
election will inevitably revolve around the preservation of the American republican
democracy, around the need to see the judicial process in which the former
President is involved play itself out, around denial of the right of the
President to pardon himself and the convicted felons of the January 6 intrusion
of the Capitol, and around the safeguarding of our alliances with the Western
world. Without Trump, the Republicans could have avoided all of these un-American
challenges and concentrated on their policy strongholds of immigration and
border security, on the economy and fiscal responsibility, and on truly
conservative principles in general.
It is way too early to consider this race decided, but it
is undeniable that the tide has turned. There are still more than 80 days of
campaigning ahead, the Democratic National Convention has yet to take place in
Chicago next week, and the first televised debate between Kamala Harris and
Donald Trump is still weeks away: September 10. Most importantly, we will have
to deal again with the imponderabilia of the role of the Electoral College.
Today, it looks fairly easy to predict a win for Kamala Harris in the national popular
vote, but in America that vote does not decide the Presidential election. And a
win in votes of the Electoral College is much harder to reach, as Al Gore and
Hillary Clinton can attest. In addition, there is uncertainty about the role of
State Legislatures in certifying their slate of Electors. Will all Republican
State Legislatures be willing to certify a slate of Electors that is based on the
outcome of the popular vote in their State?
On top of these cautionary considerations, we should be looking
ahead at the time between November 5, 2024, and Inauguration Day of January 20,
2025. Trump has already announced that only voting fraud can keep him from
winning the election and, just like he did in 2020, he will fight a negative
result for him with all means, legitimate or not. And undoubtedly, he will find
allies for his resistance with MAGA fanatics in Congress and in State Capitols.
The only difference between 2020 and 2024 is that not Trump but Biden controls
the powers of the Federal government to maintain law and order. Either way, we
are daydreaming if we think that the battle will be won or lost on November 5.
As much as, with the Biden withdrawal, we are beginning
to see the light, the fight is far from over. As before, much will depend on
the turnout of the vote. We will not know how much the American people care
about the rules of democracy and human decency and integrity until we see them come
out in droves to unambiguously reject the cult around a despicable man, his
nefarious intentions, and his accomplices in crime.
