Liz Cheney’s resounding defeat in the Republican primary for the only Wyoming seat in the House of Representatives signals a watershed moment in America’s political constellation.
On one hand it provides clarity: There is no more doubt
where today’s Republican Party stands. The litmus test is clear and absolute: If
you are not an election denier, you are not a Republican. Of the ten Republican
members of the House of Representatives who voted for impeachment in Trump’s
second impeachment trial, only two are left standing, David Valadao of
California and Daniel Newhouse of Washington.
On the other hand, the future looks murkier than ever, and
more ominous. Liz Cheney’s defeat raises so many questions about the future of
what she terms to be ‘this miraculous experiment called America’:
·
Who will stand beside her in defense of the
American democracy while campaigning for public office in 2022 and 2024?
·
What platform will be left for her to continue
her battle after the new Congress convenes in 2023 and she will no longer be
the Vice-Chair of the January 6 Committee (which may not be there any longer either
if Republicans win the House of Representatives in November)?
·
Will she run for President in 2024, and if so as
a Republican or an Independent? In her concession speech she emphatically and
repeatedly declared herself to be a Republican. But the current Republican
Party wants nothing to do with her.
·
Who will emerge as the Democratic front runner
for the 2024 Presidential Election? In spite of all official pronouncements to
the contrary, Biden will be too old to run effectively, and Kamala Harris has
done nothing to deserve taking over the mantle. At this early stage, the
absence of a clear front runner from within the Democratic Party – one who can
unite all wings of the party and attract Independents in large numbers – gives Trump
a huge advantage if he can win a contested Republican primary. Who is there on
the Democratic side? Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Jamie Raskin? Ironically,
the person who is best positioned to attract the vote of Democrats,
Independents, and probably some remaining anti-Trump Republicans, is Joe
Manchin, who has thwarted the original Biden agenda at almost every turn but is
a stalwart of constitutional democracy.
The irony is that, if it comes to preserving the great
American experiment in democracy, the best candidates to squash the authoritarian
populist wave that has engulfed a significant part of the voting public are on
the Republican side with people like Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Larry Hogan, and
Ben Sasse. But, sadly, none of these can be expected to prevail in a Republican
primary contest against Donald Trump. And Ron DeSantis is too much of a authoritarian
populist himself to be relied on for saving the constitutional republic.
There is much to be said for having one of these traditional
Republicans, if none of them can beat Trump or DeSantis in the Republican
primary, run as an Independent for the Presidency in 2024, but with a weak
Democratic candidate, it would almost certainly siphon off Independent voters
and some moderate Democrats and by default hand the victory to the person who
should in Liz Cheney’s words never again be near the Oval Office.
It is now clear that a major, if not decisive, battle for
democracy was lost when in February of 2021 only 7 Republican senators ( Lisa
Murkowski, Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse,
and Pat Toomey) voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial
which centered on his denial of his defeat against Joe Biden and his actions
and omissions during the government transition period between the November 3, 2020
election and Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021. The January 6
investigation has established beyond any reasonable doubt that, following his
electoral defeat, the former President tried every trick in the book to thwart
a peaceful transition of power and he should have been impeached for that. It
would have eliminated the pickle we are finding ourselves in today. Instead,
the Senate, needing 67 votes for a conviction but getting only 57, acquitted him.
America will now be forced to go through four excruciating political
contests: The midterm elections which will decide control of Congress for the
next two years and the lead-up to the 2024 Presidential election; the primary
elections to decide the Presidential candidates for 2024; the Presidential
election itself; and -menacingly – the contest of wills following the election
of the new President if, like in 2020, the loser refuses to concede.
America is facing a double threat to its democracy:
1.
There is a real risk that in the 2024 Presidential
Election an anti-democratic, authoritarian, populist will be voted into the
White House; and
2.
If that is not the case, we can expect to see a
repeat of the denial of the electoral outcome, this time assisted by State legislatures
and officials willing to overrule the popular vote and pick their own slate of
electors.
In either scenario, we must fear for violence in the streets.
America will then pay the price for having allowed ordinary citizens, including
members of the political fringes on the left and the right, to arm themselves
with an unlimited supply of military style weapons. We have already seen enough
of the tragic consequences with the events of January 6 and recent attacks on the
FBI and other law enforcement. No one can say we were not forewarned. The
threats are everywhere on social and a-social media.
Democracy demands that American voters come to their senses
and vote in droves, in November and again in 2024, for only those candidates
for elected office who profess to abide by the verdict that the voters pass on
them when they enter the voting booth.
