WHAT'S NEXT?

I have intentionally held my breath until after the inauguration of the Biden administration, controlling my urge to chronicle and provide context to the many dazzlingly cascading events that have occurred since I wrote my previous column, ‘No Man’s Land’ on December 21. I wanted to see how it all turned out, and now we have at least a new starting point and a new observation platform from which we can look into the future.

From this platform we look at a drastically changed landscape, affected by political earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions, that have all taken place in the last thirty days: Trump’s refusal to concede his defeat; his banishment from Twitter and Facebook; the stunning rebuke of the GOP in the special election for the two Georgia Senate seats resulting in Democratic control of the Senate; the storming of the Capitol in an effort to prevent the reading and confirmation of the Biden/Harris election by a joint session of Congress; the second impeachment of the 45^th President; and the rebuke of Trump’s role in the January 6 insurrection by some prominent Republicans, notably Liz Cheney, Mitch McConnell, Ben Sasse, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitt Romney.
What does this landscape tell us about what we can expect to happen next?

There is a lot more to this question than can be handled in a single column. So, expect a series of columns that will try to shine a search light on the future. I limit the time horizon to two years, because that is the time we have until the next national election, which will, once again, have the potential of drastically changing the political landscape.

The defining question of the moment is if the Biden administration can positively affect the lives of the large majority of the American population that has taken the brunt of decades long government neglect resulting in unbearable inequality and crises like the 2008 great recession, the Covid19 pandemic and the resulting death and devastation. And, if it can do so soon enough and with enough penetration that it can determine the outcome of the 2022 midterm election. As we know, midterm elections are notoriously challenging for the party in power, having had too little time to make good on the promises made during the previous election that brought it to power.

A column in today’s New York Times by Ezra Klein quotes Amy Lerman, a political scientist and author of the book “Good enough for Government Work”. She writes that the best thing we can do right now to reduce levels of anger and frustration is to give people the things they need to live better lives and Ezra Klein concludes: “What the Democrats need to do is simple: Just help people, and do it fast.”

So much to do, and so little time to do it.

What is the urgency? It stems from the fact that Trumpism was not defeated in the November 2020 election. In fact, it drew more support than at any time in the Trump era, with more than 74 million Americans voting in favor of a second term for the incumbent. Only an extraordinary ‘get out the votes’ effort by the Democrats, tilted the balance in favor of Biden/Harris ending up with more than 81 million votes, a 4.5% advantage over Trump/Pence. The 74 million Trump voters have been told by the right-wing pundits on TV, radio, internet media, and the President himself that they only lost the election because of massive fraud and that, if only legally cast votes were counted, they would have won – by a landslide. They are outraged, as we have seen on January 6, and are looking for revenge.

Jeffrey Goldberg, the Editor in Chief of The Atlantic, wrote today in a letter to subscribers: “A catastrophic presidency is over.” And he quoted George Packer who summarizes the verdict: “America, under Trump became less free, less equal, more divided, more alone, deeper in debt, swampier, dirtier, meaner, slicker, and deader.” But the appeal of authoritarianism, that has surfaced time and again in American political history, has not diminished in the wake of Trump defeat and can easily win the day again if the Biden administration can’t address the legitimate grievances that have driven millions of underprivileged, mostly working class, Americans away from the establishment politicians into the fold of an authoritarian populist demagogue.

It looks like a herculean task for the Biden team, given how hard it has proven to be to get a partisan, divided Congress, to agree on any substantive legislation, particularly under the current rules where sixty votes are required to pass non-budget related legislation in the Senate. It immediately raises the question for the Democrats, while they have a hold of the White House and slim majorities in the House and Senate, if they should take the widely discussed, but highly controversial, step to break with existing norms and nix the remaining application of the Senate filibuster rule (for non-budget related legislation). They will also be tempted to try and strengthen their electoral strength by considering statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, which would give Democrats four more ‘safe’ Senate seats.

The Democrats will realize that taking these unorthodox steps is likely to rule out cooperation with moderate Republicans, eliminate the possibility of a coalition of the center (moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans), and harden the opposition by Trump loyalists in Congress and among the voting public. All reasons why Biden so far has refused to voice support for these fateful steps.

It looks to me that the decision in these matter lies with the Republican Party. Will it stay together as a united block to Democratic policy proposals? The answer may come when the Senate Republicans will have to decide the verdict on Trump’s second impeachment. If a good number of Senate Republicans end up voting for impeachment and barring Trump from ever running for office again, the likelihood of a split in the GOP between Trump loyalists and traditional Republicans will increase exponentially. Trump himself has already hinted at leaving the GOP and creating his own ‘Patriot Party’. 

If that happens, a smart, time- and battle tested, Joe Biden could succeed in crafting a strong enough informal coalition of centrist Republicans and Democrats to advance major parts of his program and pry the working-class voters back from the MAGA charade, just in time for the 2022 midterm election. Wishful thinking? Yes, very possibly. GOP Senators can easily avoid the dilemma by arguing that you can’t impeach a President who has already been replaced or, like they have done before, that Trump was guilty as charged, but that the crime does not rise to the level of an impeachable offense. Stay tuned.

In a next column, I will address the positives and negatives of the outcome of the 2020 election from the perspective of a population that so badly requires to see its daunting challenges addressed by an effective, compassionate, disciplined federal government that does not unduly interfere with individual freedoms and responsibilities but puts teeth in the constitutional  mandate ‘to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity’.