I am old enough and have lived long enough in the USA to remember the TV show ‘To tell the truth’ and, almost 100 hundred days into the Biden administration, I keep asking myself the question that concluded every episode of the show: ‘Will the real America please stand up’?
The
electoral process has put Joe Biden in the White House as the 46th
President, but the 45th still claims that he won the election and
many Americans, a large majority of Republicans, side with him. We knew that
the nation was polarized, but to such extent? The President may be the titular head
of the nation, but it cannot be said that the occupant of the White House is representative
of the nation and what it stands for. Otherwise, how to explain the contrast in
character between #45 and #46?
What will we
see when the real America stands up? Will it look like a Trumpian America, an
Obama-like America, a traditional establishment America, or still something
else? The world, Americans included, is thoroughly confused about the true
American identity. And when the real
America stands up, when will it be, and will we like what we see?
What we hope
to see is a determined, tenacious America willing to assert its world
leadership in every respect, economically, militarily, scientifically, democratically,
and morally. Glenn Hubbard and Tim Kane, in a 2013 National Affairs article,
reminded us that “Great powers are rarely brought down by outside adversaries;
they destroy themselves from within. Very often, they do it by falling victim
to economic imbalances and the decay of once-vibrant governing institutions
that prove unable to adapt to changing circumstances.”
America, today, is at risk of internal strife, paralysis, and decay that its adversaries and competitors, China most of all, will only be too glad to take advantage of. America finds itself in this situation because it has been lacking, for decades now, a clear national strategy and competent administrations to execute. America has put itself deep in debt, without gaining anything, without addressing and solving any of the major challenges that put its hegemony in jeopardy. Its Congress has debased itself to becoming a platform for grandstanding, and a showcase for partisanship. It has proven to be incapable of legislating in a bi-partisan manner as demonstrated by the fact that all major legislative measures of the past three administrations, the Affordable Care Act, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Biden’s American Rescue Plan, have passed with only single party support. Congress has yet to demonstrate that it can pass meaningful, substantive, legislation unless the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives are all controlled by the same party.
The onus is
now on the Biden administration. It has until November of next year, only 17
months, to show that an effective, problem solving, administration can make a
difference in the lives of ordinary Americans and fend off the traditional
curse of a losing mid-term election after its first two years in office.
In the 21st
century, only George W. Bush has pulled this off, arguably only because of the
afterglow of his handling of 9/11 and only in his first term.
All the
political chatter today is about the Republican push to tighten voting access
laws and gerrymandering voting districts as a means to enhance their electoral
chances in November of 2022. The Democrats plan on countering these moves by
trying to bring the HR-1 Voting Law, that has passed the House of Representatives
in 2020, up for a vote in the Senate, while it still has control of the Senate
and the White House. Both parties understand how crucial the outcome of the
2022 mid-term election is in determining their political fortunes and it is revealing
for their current stance that they are pushing in opposite directions, for and
against the widest possible access to the voting booth. The resulting stand-off
cannot be resolved without congressional action, and that fact places the
filibuster question front and center of the equation.
The
Republicans are all too aware that the proposed changes in the voting rights laws,
particularly as they relate to voting access, gerrymandering, mail-in voting, automatic
voter registration, and campaign financing, will make it harder for them to
compete for the White House and majority in the Senate and the House of
Representatives. After all, according to the latest Gallup poll, Republicans
represent only 25% of the population, versus 32% for Democrats and 41% for
Independents.
This is not lost on President Biden, who has come up with a novel definition of bi-partisanship when he claims that his overly broad and expensive proposal for infrastructure is bi-partisan, because it seemingly has the support of a large majority of the population, including Republicans. This stance hints at a strategy to pursue between now and November of next year. The strategy seeks to drive a wedge between the Republican Congressional delegation and the Republican voters, claiming in effect that the Republican Congressional stance is not representatives of the preferences of Republican constituency at large. It might work if Biden’s infrastructure proposal, which he has dubbed the ‘American Jobs Plan’, can be carried through Congress under the reconciliation rule that does not require a 3/5th majority vote in the Senate. It would still require negotiation and arm twisting to keep all Democrats, including Joe Manchin, in line. But that is a good thing, because there is little doubt that the proposal on the table is too rich and too broad to be effectively passed and implemented. If Biden manages to steer a sanitized American Jobs Plan through congress, and if it will be perceived to improve American lives, Republicans will have a hard time explaining to their constituencies why they voted against it.
Passing a
comprehensive voting rights bill is another matter. Here, Biden may have no
choice but to negotiate with Joe Manchin cum suis for an exception from the
filibuster rule, because this type of legislation certainly cannot pass under
the reconciliation rule and there is no chance for him to pick up 10 Republican
votes for the legislation on the table.
The best effort
Biden can make for a win in November of 2022 is to convince the voters that the
government has a role to play in improving their personal circumstances. He has
done that by signing the American Rescue Plan that deals with the negative
impact of the Covid19 pandemic, and he proposes to do (much) more of the same
by his infrastructure proposal, dubbed the American Jobs Plan.
A Democrat loss
in November of 2022 is not inevitable, if Biden manages to get the American
public on his side by taking for most Americans the sting out of the Covid
recession, by reducing the inequities in pay, taxation, housing, education,
healthcare, and the criminal justice system, by revamping infrastructure in an
environmentally conscious way, and by addressing family needs with respect to
childcare and eldercare. That is a formidable task to be accomplished in very
short order after decades of inaction. It will still require for the Democrats to
put up strong candidates in the congressional races, candidates who wholeheartedly
support the Biden agenda and appeal to the public at large. And it will require
legislative discipline of not trying to do too much at once and avoiding ‘third
rail’ issues like killing the filibuster rule and court packing. They may get
help from the Republican party if, in their primaries, they give the upper hand
to Trump fanatics. Ultimately, turn-out in response to recognition of what is
at stake will be the deciding factor, much like it was in 2020. Which is why
the battle about voting rights rages.
A wild card
in this strategizing of domestic policy and tactics is what happens beyond our
borders. Any plan can be derailed by foreign threats like China moving on
Taiwan, Russia moving on Ukraine, a Middle East conflict, or a Taliban takeover
in Afghanistan. All bets are off when the USA gets embroiled in yet another
foreign conflict. God help us if that happens.
The truth is
that America is in desperate need of domestic problem resolution. It has lost
tremendous respect in the world by seriously flawed and inconsistent leadership
and by failure to acknowledge and correct its societal shortcomings. One may,
or may not agree, with all aspects of the Biden agenda, but denying the Biden
administration a governable majority in Congress will only be a recipe for
further stalemate and inaction. I hold out hope that, by the process of
deliberate, targeted, government action and public response, we will see the
real America stand up and reveal itself by the end of 2022. May it be an
America that we can all believe in, be proud of, and stand behind.
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