THE BIG PICTURE

 As of the time of this writing, America is anticipating several events that could determine the outcome of the November Presidential election. The first televised debate between the contenders, the current President and his predecessor, is scheduled for Thursday, June 27 and the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is expected to rule on Trump’s claim of absolute presidential immunity and the question if the insurrectionists who breached the Capitol on January 6, 2021 (and possibly the former President) can be held criminally culpable for obstruction of Congress. It is possible that all three events come off in the span of 12 hours on June 27 and produce an earthshaking shock effect that breaks the stalemate in which the presidential contest appears to have settled. An erratic, unhinged, debate performance by Trump, combined with adverse rulings by SCOTUS could seriously jeopardize his chances for a win in November and, conversely, a stumbling, fragile, showing by Biden in the debate, combined with SCOTUS rulings in favor of Trump and other insurrectionists could deliver the Biden campaign a fatal blow. A mixed outcome, with some points going to Trump and others going to Biden can keep us in suspense a little longer, or maybe even all the way to November.

We are often advised to live in the here and now, as opposed to dwelling in the past or dreaming of a better future. But that is why we get so focused on breaking news and the story of the day that we are at risk of missing the big picture. And the big picture, right now, is not very pretty.

While there is a tremendous build-up of nervousness and emotion in anticipation of the November election, it is easy to overlook the near certainty that the election will not settle the way forward with American politics. In the first place, Trump has made it abundantly clear that he will not accept the outcome of the election, unless he is declared the winner. And this time around, he will have support for his position, justifiable or not, from many Republican representatives in Congress, in State legislatures, in State Capitols with Republican governors, secretaries of State, and Election officials, and even on the bench of State and Federal courts. That is significantly different from 2020 into 2021 when Trump had little organized support for his contention that the election had been stolen from him. The saving grace  is that this time he will not have the power of the White House on his side. But that may be easily offset by his capacity to whip the MAGA crowd into a frenzy that may have the January 6, 2021, storming of the Capital look like a walk in the park.

If, God forbid, Trump legitimately wins the election we will have a whole different set of challenges to deal with. This scenario will play itself out if a large percentage of eligible voters decide that this choice between a deranged and a feeble geriatric is not for them and stay home on November 5 or if many of them, put off by the choice they have been given, vote for third party or write-in candidates.             

A trump victory will not alter the basic parity between the representation of the Republican and Democratic parties in Congress and thus perpetuate the paralysis in Congressional law-making. It will defer the reshaping of the political map of the United States to the elections of 2026, 2028, and beyond. What it will do in the interim is set up an unending tug of war between executive decision making by the White House and the contesting thereof, if not in Congress, by citizens and interest groups in the courts and maybe in the streets. What we can glean from the many loud statements made by Trump and his campaign and from the much publicized ‘Project 2025’ is so extreme populist and anti-democratic that it cannot fail but trigger a determined and passionate response and rebuttal from that part of the electorate that loses with a Trump win in November. Project 2025 is a collection of ultra-right policy proposals from the Heritage Foundation to reshape the United States’ federal government in the event of a Republican Party victory in the 2024 presidential election.

It is all too awful to contemplate and therein hopefully lies the key to avoiding this outcome of the 2024 election. It is hard to believe that when it really matters and when it is time to turn in the ballot for this election a majority of the American voters would disregard the awfulness of the Trump view of the world, his entourage, and his character. After all, we are dealing with a contender who no responsible board of directors would ever allow to be chief executive of their company and who 40 out of 44 former members of his cabinet, including his own Vice President, refused to endorse.

The big picture is that:

·        In America today you have to be in the 90^th percentile of family wealth to afford child care and education, eldercare, and adequate healthcare if, at the same time you want to preserve your funding for retirement.

·        The national debt has more than doubled from $17 Trillion in 2014 to $35 Trillion in 2024.

·        The world has lost faith in our leadership capacity and willingness.

·        Maybe for the first time since the Civil War, the Union is under serious threat of sedition and anti-democratic tendencies.

That is the big picture and there is nothing in the Trump plans for a second term to change any of that. On the contrary. He and his sycophants are showing their hand when they now state that America is a Republic but not a Democracy, as if democratic principles are incompatible with the constitutional republic that America is. Let’s hope that the voters in November keep their eyes on the big picture and vote for a chance to improve that picture. The big question is if the system of our elections can withstand the relentless attacks with lies, conspiracies, and ai originated or altered disinformation from foreign and domestic interest groups and still offer the voting public a clear field of vision from which to make their choice.