NOVEMBER 5

There are dates that are indelibly etched into our collective memory: December 7, the day that lives in infamy, June 6 D-Day, November 22 JFK assassination, September 11, January 6, and most recently October 7. They are all dates that profoundly changed the trajectory of history. Most, but not all of these dates come unpredictably, like black swans. Some, like D-Day, are carefully planned. The next such date is November 5, 2024, when Americans will go to the polls to elect their 47^th President, a new House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and numerous State governorships.

What for the longest time threatened to be a contest between two elderly white men, one greatly diminished in his campaign readiness by the ravages of time, the demands of the job, and a lifetime of personal tragedies and one who, by personal disposition and track record, should be disqualified from ever holding the highest office in the land, has suddenly morphed into a very different scenario when Joe Biden dropped out of the race. For 24 days after his stunningly sub par performance in the first presidential debate with Donald Trump, Joe Biden held out, defiantly, even though he kept stumbling in every public appearance orchestrated to show his command. It had the distinct feeling that the next Presidential election would not be a political contest, but a clash between two cults. For all those 24 days, it looked like Joe Biden had chosen a page out of the Trump book of self-aggrandizement: “Only I can save you.” That was very much the tenor of his interview with George Stephanopoulos on July 5 when he said: “Look, I’m running again because I think I understand best what has to be done to take this nation to a completely new level.” For all those agonizing 24 days, where everything went against him, he seemed to put his personal ambition above the interest of the country and make it a contest between the Trump cult and the Biden cult. Thankfully, with his withdrawal from the race yesterday, that debacle has been avoided.

When Biden beat Trump in the 2020 election, he presented himself as a ‘transitional’ President. The impression he gave was that he would serve for one term, lead the nation out of the quagmire created by four years of Trump disfunction, and hand over the torch to a representative of a new generation. We can only guess at what kept him from executing that plan, but he apparently changed his mind and, until yesterday, was adamant that he would run for a second term and beat Trump one more time. Was it because he surprised the nation and himself by being one of the most consequential Presidents of our lifetime despite having to work with a hostile Senate for the first two years of his tenure and a very hostile House of Representatives for the second two years? Was it because he truly believed that there was nobody inside the Democratic Party that could do the job as well as he could? Or was it that he feared, probably justifiably so, that being clear about being a one-term President would relegate him from day one to the status of a lame duck who could not accomplish anything domestically and on the world stage? We can only guess his motivation, but the bottom line is that with only 106 days left until November 5 the campaign now must be completely realigned.

The outcome of the Democratic primaries that put Joe Biden on track for the nomination must be disregarded and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago August 19-22 must anoint someone else than the incumbent President. At the close of that Convention, only 77 days remain for the final campaign towards the most consequential election of our lifetime.

The good news is that we can now look forward to a contest not between two overaged self-indulgent personalities but between a champion of authoritarianism and a yet to be named champion of improved democracy. At this time, it very much looks like a contest between a prosecutor and a convicted felon (which should never be a real contest). But the selection of the Democratic candidate has yet to play itself out in accordance with the rules established by the Democratic National Committee and remains open until the Democratic National Convention, still almost a month away.

In the process of nominating the Democratic candidates for President and Vice President the delegates to the DNC will have to keep in mind the Democratic chances in the Congressional races in November. Holding on to the White House but losing the Senate and staying in the minority in the House of Representatives would not be enough to defeat the authoritarian streak in the Republican Party of today. The Democratic Party has several highly qualified members for high office, but some of them, like Mark Kelly, Jamie Raskin, and Sherrod Brown are running for re-election in Congress where they will be needed to protect the Democratic representation. Andy Beshear, the Democratic governor of the very red State of Kentucky would be surrendering the Lexington Capitol to his Republican Lieutenant Governor if he were to step up to national office.

Another question to be decided is if Joe Biden should complete his term in office or resign and hand over the reins to Kamala Harris before his term expires. Ultimately, that should be decided by the President’s capacity to competently execute his presidential duties. At this point it is not abundantly clear what his fitness for office is. That is a medical not a political determination. For national security reasons the determination has to be made quickly and behind closed doors. Of course, a Biden resignation followed by the swearing in of Kamala Harris as the 47^th President, would almost certainly settle her candidature for the next Presidential term. But it would require the selection of a new Vice-President by Kamala Harris and that selection would have to be approved by both houses of Congress. Good luck with that in a Mike Johnson led House of Representatives. Mike Johnson and his cohorts would be keenly aware that he would be next in line for the Presidency if something were to happen to Kamala Harris before a new VP could be confirmed. What a scary thought! That threat would not go away until January 20, 2025.

It is abundantly clear that November 5, 2024, is shaping up as another one of those fateful days that, for better or for worse, will be etched forever in our collective memory.