BEGINNING TO SEE THE LIGHT

At least it is no longer a contest between two elderly white men, one greatly diminished in his campaign readiness by the ravages of time, the demands of the job, and a lifetime of personal tragedies and one angry old man who, by personal disposition and track record, should have been disqualified from ever holding the highest office in the land.

Biden’s acceptance of the inevitable has immediately altered the race for the White House. For a long time it looked like the Democrats were inexorably heading into defeat and like lemmings following each other over the cliff. There was a widespread belief that Vice President Kamala Harris was not what the voters wanted (the jury is still out on that until November 5), but her immediate ascendancy following Biden’s withdrawal seems to belie that notion.

One of the most remarkable things that has happened after Biden dropped out of the race is that as soon as he had taken himself out of the picture, an impressive number of potential candidates for the Democratic ticket came out of the shadows. It was smart for the Democrats to quickly close ranks behind Kamala Harris and avoid a divisive contest going into the Democratic Convention, but it became clear that if Biden had acted timely his party could have come up with a stronger contender than the current Vice President. Nevertheless, the die has been cast and the scenario has changed dramatically.

The old worn shoe is now on the other foot. The Republicans will have to make the best with what they have in hand: a tired old, mumbling and stumbling, bitter and revengeful man who keeps spinning and getting entangled in a web of lies. A man who is so clearly over the hill and has overstayed his welcome. The British journalist Nate White brilliantly characterizes this flawed human specimen: “No class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no humor, and no grace.” Nate White also opens our eyes to the fact that the man never laughs and never says anything faintly witty or amusing: “His idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a blatant lie, or a casual act of cruelty.”

If Kamala Harris ends up winning this election, the Republicans have only themselves to blame. By slavishly throwing their support behind a man who is so clearly unfit for the office he so badly wants to return to they are, probably fatally, torpedoing their chance to regain the White House and in the process are jeopardizing their shot at controlling both houses of Congress. Can you imagine what a challenge Kamala Harris would have if she had to square off against a Larry Hogan, a Glenn Youngkin, a Nikki Haley, or even a Ron DeSantis?

With Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket, the election will inevitably revolve around the preservation of the American republican democracy, around the need to see the judicial process in which the former President is involved play itself out, around denial of the right of the President to pardon himself and the convicted felons of the January 6 intrusion of the Capitol, and around the safeguarding of our alliances with the Western world. Without Trump, the Republicans could have avoided all of these un-American challenges and concentrated on their policy strongholds of immigration and border security, on the economy and fiscal responsibility, and on truly conservative principles in general.

It is way too early to consider this race decided, but it is undeniable that the tide has turned. There are still more than 80 days of campaigning ahead, the Democratic National Convention has yet to take place in Chicago next week, and the first televised debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is still weeks away: September 10. Most importantly, we will have to deal again with the imponderabilia of the role of the Electoral College. Today, it looks fairly easy to predict a win for Kamala Harris in the national popular vote, but in America that vote does not decide the Presidential election. And a win in votes of the Electoral College is much harder to reach, as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can attest. In addition, there is uncertainty about the role of State Legislatures in certifying their slate of Electors. Will all Republican State Legislatures be willing to certify a slate of Electors that is based on the outcome of the popular vote in their State?

On top of these cautionary considerations, we should be looking ahead at the time between November 5, 2024, and Inauguration Day of January 20, 2025. Trump has already announced that only voting fraud can keep him from winning the election and, just like he did in 2020, he will fight a negative result for him with all means, legitimate or not. And undoubtedly, he will find allies for his resistance with MAGA fanatics in Congress and in State Capitols. The only difference between 2020 and 2024 is that not Trump but Biden controls the powers of the Federal government to maintain law and order. Either way, we are daydreaming if we think that the battle will be won or lost on November 5.

As much as, with the Biden withdrawal, we are beginning to see the light, the fight is far from over. As before, much will depend on the turnout of the vote. We will not know how much the American people care about the rules of democracy and human decency and integrity until we see them come out in droves to unambiguously reject the cult around a despicable man, his nefarious intentions, and his accomplices in crime.